Russia’s aviation industry is preparing to ditch major manufacturers such as Boeing and Airbus SE in a bid to focus on producing needed aircraft locally.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Western powers imposed sanctions on Moscow, severely affecting its aviation sector. Pervasive sanctions prevent Russia from securing the spare parts it needs to maintain its foreign-made aircraft. State-owned defense conglomerate Rostec sees the situation as an opportunity to boost local aircraft manufacturing.
“Foreign aircraft will drop out of the fleet,” said Rostec Reuters“We believe this process is irreversible and that Boeing and Airbus planes will never be delivered to Russia. is standing.”
Aircraft from foreign manufacturers such as Airbus and Boeing are used for 95% of passenger traffic in Russia. As of April 20, of the 1,287 aircraft in service in Russia, only 470 were produced in Russia. Interfax It reported, citing Ministry data.
In the ministry’s baseline scenario, Russia’s total fleet is projected to shrink to 999 aircraft by 2025, of which 427 will be foreign-built. By 2030, the number of aircraft is expected to surge to his 1,602, including 208 foreign aircraft, due to increased domestic production.
Between 2022 and 2030, Russia says it will deliver 1,036 passenger planes.
Richard Aboulafia, managing director of US-based Aerodynamics Advisory, told Reuters that Russia’s plan to build 1,036 airliners within seven years was “fundamentally impossible.” .
He noted that Russia and the former Soviet Union built only about 2,000 large commercial airliners combined.
“Even if we could get semiconductors and other vital parts from the West, it would have been very difficult to build more than a handful of jets,” Aboulafia said.
Cannibalization of other aircraft
In June, the Russian government recommended airlines to use some aircraft parts so that the remaining aircraft could remain in service until at least 2025.
Current, No domestic regulations About how airlines can use existing parts to repair their fleets. The aviation industry is asking the government to codify rules for this practice. The new regulations are expected to come into force by early 2023.
Even if Russia tries to secure aircraft parts through other countries not subject to sanctions from the West, companies from these countries are unlikely to do business with Russia for fear of retaliation.
Moscow expects passenger numbers to remain unchanged at 100 million this year. However, in the baseline scenario, traffic is expected to decline to 76.3 million in 2025, while in the pessimistic scenario, traffic is projected to decline to 58.2 million by 2025. I’m here.
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Naveen Athrappully is a news reporter covering business and world events for The Epoch Times.