Sanctions unlikely to force Russian hands: foreign policy experts

Two foreign policy experts at Curtin University in Australia say that coordinated sanctions and boycotts against Russia rarely suppress the current invasion of Ukraine or push the inner circle of Vladimirputin to eliminate him. I believe.

Democracies have created a wave of sanctions over the past week, putting pressure on the Russian elite to stop invading neighboring countries.

Some measures include ousting Russian financial institutions from the SWIFT global payment system. This is essential for remittances between countries. Freeze the oligarch’s assets. Restrict Russian planes from accessing European, American and Canadian airspace. Blocks Moscow’s central bank from accessing foreign exchange reserves.

Companies, retirement funds, and nonprofits have also contributed in some way through the boycott of the Russian market.

According to Joseph Siracusa, an associate professor of international diplomacy, this approach has precedent, but actual results may be delayed.

Epoch Times Photo
Russian President Vladimir Putin will attend a conference held in Moscow on March 2, 2022. (Via Mikhail Klimentiev / Sputnik / AFP, Getty Images)

“They have a one-third success rate,” he told the Epoch Times. “They won’t work in the short term. Sanctions tend to work only in the long run.”

The professor believed that this method was designed to force Putin to resign or change power, but said this was also an unlikely scenario.

He pointed out the situation in South Africa during the apartheid era, which has been subject to international sanctions for many years.

“It was a normal person who suffered,” he said. “People were still driving their Mercedes and went to their beautiful homes, factories, and everything else. Sanctions often hit the wrong parts of society.”

“In many cases, I think sanctions are a very poor alternative to directly helping the people you want to help.”

Alexei Muraviev, Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences and Security at Curtin, warned that sanctions could further establish the position of the Russian president.

“Immediately after Putin recognized the (two) separatist regions of Ukraine, his popularity rose 10% from about 60% to 71%,” he told The Epoch Times. “Given the war and devastation, it’s a little hard to say how Russians feel now.”

“The Russian state is strengthening its dominance over freedom of speech, and two major opposition media have been closed,” he said.

“The story that exists in the Russian media space is’blame the West and blame the Americans’,” he added.

Muraviev was also worried that separating Moscow from the developed world could bring Moscow closer to Beijing.

Chinese leaders’ reaction to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was silent, Implicit approval or disapproval Of Russian action.

Siracusa said Beijing was “nervous” about development and that relations between Russia and China have always been driven by “practicalism” rather than loyalty.

“Chinese wants to take on Americans in economics, AI, and the Super Bowl of the future. Putin wants to burn the stadium and everyone in it. It’s totally to the Chinese. Not suitable, “he said. “This is not the way China controls. They will not participate in this naked aggression business.”

Total trade relations between China and Ukraine US $ 19 billion Last year, it was also an important partner in Beijing’s expansionist infrastructure policy, the Belt and Road Initiative.

“Ukraine is a Belt and Road foothold at the neck of the forest, and Putin has decided to enter the battlefield, so the Chinese are not going to cut their throats.”

Daniel Y. Ten


Daniel Y. Teng is based in Sydney. He focuses on national politics, including federal politics, COVID-19 response, and relations between Australia and China. Do you have a hint? Contact him at [email protected]