Successful transactions between Iran and China may depend on Iran’s easing in the United States: Experts

News analysis

Iran and China’s Foreign Ministers sign a 25-year strategic comprehensive partnership agreement on March 27 to cover economic, political and military cooperation between the two countries and bring Iran a $ 400 billion investment in China. did.

The agreement signed between Mohammad Jabad Zarif and Wang Yi in Tehran will ensure that China gets a stable supply of Iran’s oil in return for its investment. Experts said it looks like a bilateral agreement, but in fact lays the groundwork for subtle geopolitics among multiple global and regional players within the region.

“In January 2016, China and Iran issued a joint statement on the establishment of a comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries and agreed to sign a comprehensive cooperation plan. In response to questions at the regular press conference on Monday, through communication and consultation, we recently reached an agreement on the content of the comprehensive plan. “

“This plan focuses on unlocking the potential for economic and cultural cooperation and creating courses for long-term cooperation. Includes quantitative and concrete contracts and goals. It is not intended for third parties and will provide a general framework for future cooperation between China and Iran. “

Iranian writer and geopolitical analyst Hamid Bahrami told The Epoch Times in an email that he believed the deal would not be made public because it would be a domestic issue for the Iranian administration.

“Mullah knows what they have done and is afraid of Iranian society. In 1919, such an agreement was signed with Britain, but caused national protests and eventually. It was revoked, “Bahrami said, adding that the Iranians are protesting the agreement on Saturday.

“A significant number of Iranians protested in front of parliament yesterday, calling the deal” treason “and” selling Iran to China, “he said.

Epoch Times Photo
On December 31, 2019, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is shaking hands with Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Jabad Zarif during a meeting at Diaoyutai State Guest House in Beijing, China. (NoelCelis-Pool / Getty Images)

Timing of transactions

Experts have commented on the timing of the deal and the possibility that the new Biden administration will follow a “appeasement” policy towards Iran.

“China has signed an agreement with Iran not because of US pressure on Iran, but because of Biden’s appeasement policy. American Enterprise Institute Fellow Xiyue Wang said the US on Iran for the next four years. China did not sign last June because the policy remained uncertain as to who would become the next president. In a Twitter message on March 27th.

king Pointed out that it is there There was a lot of talk about last year’s deal, and China did not comment or sign. If Trump remained in power, the greatest pressure on Iran would continue and signing the agreement would not have benefited China. “China-Iran’s trade volume in 2020 was the lowest in the last 15 years,” he said.

“I wrote from late November to December that if Biden calmed Iran, China would sign the agreement. This is exactly what is happening. The Chinese government in early 2021. China and Iran Trade is projected to grow from $ 15 billion in 2020 to $ 20 billion in 2021. ” King in another message.

The king called Biden’s approach a “bad foreign policy” and said the United States was stepping in. “The United States, which is the only country that can prevent China from settling in Iran and has its own reasons to do so for security reasons, is helping China to settle in Iran accurately. Isn’t that daunting? ”King I said in another message.

He said how effective the Iran-China agreement depends on how effective the United States is. Willing to reduce pressure on Iran..

Bahrami said easing US sanctions on Iran would accelerate the implementation of the agreement. “It’s up to China. If Beijing is willing to confront US sanctions, the deal will take place. I don’t think this will happen. This is a complex issue, UAE, Saudi Arabia, India, US, China. There are at least four players, including Iran. I am confident that the deal will take place as soon as the US eases sanctions. Remember that Iran is still seeking bombs. ” Said Barrami. He said the situation was like an international soccer game, with multiple players, each threatening the enemy and at the same time creating pressure on the negotiations.

China will use the deal to weaken the United States’ position in the “Arab countries’ view,” according to Baharami, who added that China’s foreign minister is visiting the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia to test water. ..

“Beijing is trying to keep authoritarian Arab nations away from the United States. I don’t know if that is possible, but in my opinion it depends on the Western approach to Iran. This is because the West is against Iran. If the authoritarian policy is continued, it means that the Arabs will approach China to isolate the Iranian government. ” Bahrami believes that Turkey is now a NATO member and cannot offend allies, so he will participate in this “international football” game to be performed on the field in Iran a few years later.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Jabad Zarif (R) will meet with China’s Special Envoy for Middle East Affairs Zhai Jun in Tehran on October 22, 2019. Behind it is a portrait of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (R) and the late Islamic founder. Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. (ATTA KENARE / AFP via Getty Images)

What are China and Iran looking for?

Mr Bahrami said the Iranian administration is seeking two “contradictory purposes” by signing the agreement. The first is that the administration needs to approach the eastern part, especially China, and the second is to acquire and integrate censorship technology from China. The power of the administration over Iran.

“This is because the two governments are authoritarian and have an agenda of anti-Western values. The West has such a relationship with theocracy, which has roots in Islamic fundamentalism and dictatorship. You can’t, so the Iranian government chooses China because they have the same soul, “Balami said.

“Second, the existence of the administration is at serious risk, especially by the people of Iran. The administration is full of corruption and economic crisis. [could] Revolutionize overnight. In his speech on Iran’s New Year, the Supreme Leader called for restricting the Internet, “Bahrami said. According to Baharami, the Chinese administration has its own censorship technology that is completely state-controlled and separated from the World Wide Web, and Khamenei is trying to buy it.

“The Supreme Leader considers the future of the administration and his successor, perhaps his son, and seeks security against it. Khamenei hopes that China can give him such a guarantee. There is. Receiving cash to rebuild the agent is another major reason to sign this deal, “he said.

Meanwhile, China sees the deal as an opportunity to continue the Belt and Road project, according to Bahrami.

“China aims to become the dominant power in the Middle East, Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean over the next decade. Iran is the most important country to achieve this goal. Iran has thousands of miles. It has a coastline and some important ports such as Chabahar and Jask. China currently dominates Gwadar [in Pakistan] And Beijing was concerned that India could threaten it by taking control of Chabahar and Jask. The agreement will give the Chinese Navy control over the Gulf in the near future. “

Bahrami believes that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi should improve relations with the Arabs and persuade the Biden administration to take a strict stance against Iran.

“While the greatest pressure campaign exists, the deal between China and Iran will not be feasible, or at least it will be suspended. The Iranian administration says that theocracy will approach China if the greatest pressure continues. It’s naively trying to put pressure on the West. It would be even more deadly for the West to believe in Iran’s propaganda, but if China can do that, the deal is important. “