Affected by China’s weakening economy and declining demand from end-users, Taiwan’s statistics bureau said the country’s export orders had plummeted. 23.4 percent in November compared to the same month last year.
This was the third straight month of year-on-year decline and the sharpest drop since March 2009.
Experts said Taiwan’s annual export performance framed a recession and it was almost a foregone conclusion that the outlook for the first half of next year would be less optimistic.
data release According to the Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA) on Dec. 20, Taiwan’s export orders totaled $50.1 billion in November, down 23.4% year-on-year, well below the Ministry’s forecast of 14.5% to 17.6%. I was.
Huang Yu-ling, head of the MOEA’s Bureau of Statistics, said export orders in December ranged from $47 billion to $49 billion, down 27.8% to 30.8% year-on-year, marking the fourth straight month of year-on-year growth. expected to decrease in .
For the fourth quarter of 2022 (Q4), Huang said exports will range from $152.5 billion to $154.5 billion, down 9.0 to 10.2% from the third quarter and down 19.7 to 20.8% from the same period last year. I expect.
yellow Added “Next year will be a very uncertain time,” he said, as export orders are closely tied to the global economy. She pointed to factors such as rising global inflation, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, the US-China technology war, and high uncertainty in the Chinese economy.
Amid the COVID-19 outbreak in China, the performance of Taiwan’s export orders next year is yet to be seen.
Qiu Jianrong, an economics professor at Taiwan’s National Central University, told the Epoch Times on Dec. 23 that inflation would cause real incomes to fall.
He said a mismatch occurs when consumer wages remain the same as the price of goods and services rises, and this leads to a decline in purchasing power.
“As inflation became more and more severe late last year and into this year, global purchasing power fell, resulting in lower demand for handsets,” Qiu said.
“another reason [for the decline in demand] Supply chain disruptions over the past two years have meant manufacturers have accumulated a large amount of inventory, including semiconductor chips. ”
Chiou said the problem of excess inventories is unlikely to be resolved by the second quarter of 2023, and forecast export numbers for the first half of next year are not optimistic. He then urged people to mentally prepare for the worsening economic trend.
On the US Federal Reserve’s continued interest rate hikes, Chiou expects all major economies to hike rates within the next six months to a year due to rising global inflation.
China business confidence hits lowest in nearly a decade
China business confidence hits lowest level since January 2013, survey shows release Reflects the impact of the surge in COVID-19 cases on economic activity, according to World Economics on December 19.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s sudden move to abandon its zero COVID policy without a plan has left the country’s health system with little time to prepare.
As many as 37 million people a day are infected with COVID in China, according to leaked minutes from a meeting of the country’s top health authority, confirmed by multiple news outlets.
“The survey shows that China’s economic growth has slowed very dramatically, [a] 2023 Recession,” World Economics report.
China’s GDP is expected to grow by just 3% this year, according to the report, the worst performance in nearly half a century. Reuters.
Chiou said the unchecked reopening of the CCP is the biggest short-term variable as the rapid spread of COVID in China is severely impacting the country’s manufacturing sector.
“The world is heavily dependent on China’s supply chain, so if the supply chain link is broken, it will affect the global supply chain. In addition, China’s demand market also accounts for a relatively large proportion of the global market. , China’s demand has contracted significantly, which is another negative news for the global market.”
Rita Huang is a financial news journalist based in Taiwan. She has been contributing to the Epoch Times since her 2014.
Sean Tseng is a writer based in Taiwan. He focuses on Chinese news.