The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas shows how Biden does not control the Middle East


Aftermath of the Palestinian Israeli Conflict

Aftermath of the Palestinian Israeli Conflict

A destroyed house seen on May 21, 2021 after a ceasefire between Israeli and Gaza fighters in the town of Beithanun in the northern part of the Gaza Strip.Credits-Photos by Momen Faiz / Nur Photo via Getty Images

It took 11 days, but Israel and Hamas finally agreed Ceasefire It finished their latest round Deadly violence.. Over 250 people, the overwhelming majority in Gaza, were killed in interaction with civilian men, women and children, many of whom were involved in the shootout. As expected, both sides claimed victory.

From a political point of view, President Joe Biden has achieved nothing. There are seven reasons here.

1. This episode revealed that Biden was unable to judge this battle.

When Hamas launches missiles at Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and other parts of Israel, persuading Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stop his troops from attacking Hamas’ targets in Gaza I could not do it.There is a problem that the US president can pressure Israeli leaders to change tack, but that’s all. Israeli political system As in this case, we are united behind actions to protect national security. In a recent poll, 72% The Israelis opposed the ceasefire until Hamas and its rocket-launching capabilities were seriously damaged. Biden resisted the call for a ceasefire as much as possible, knowing the fame of the United States and knowing that his credibility would be hurt if his call was ignored.

2. Biden’s lack of leverage with Israel left him no real influence with Hamas.

Hamas leaders knew that if Biden could not get Netanyahu to stop the fire in Israel, stopping Hamas’ own attack would surrender. And Biden knows that the former president cannot always rely on the Arab government to talk to Hamas. Although Egypt had some influence over Hamas and played a leading role in mediating the ceasefire, the Egyptian government’s sympathy for Islamic extremists in both Hamas and its ally Palestinian Islamic Jihad was a religion within the country. It is alleviated by the desire to contain the militants. You can’t expect them to play this role as consistently as they did ten years ago.

The United Arab Emirates, along with Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan, normalized relations with Israel last year. Abraham Accords mediated by the Trump administration, Was also detained. To justify the normalization of relations with Israel, these Arab governments argued that their new relations would help limit Israeli strikes against Palestinians. This recent conflict has also made them look bad. That’s why they condemned Israel’s actions and encouraged “suppression,” but they never leave a potentially beneficial relationship with Israel. Saudi Arabia has blamed Israel’s actions, but the two governments have a common interest in containing their common enemy, Iran. Biden understands that the next time Israel and Hamas are hit, it will be even more difficult to find someone who is willing and capable of detaining Hamas.

3. There is no viable long-term plan to prevent this from happening again.

For now, Israel and Hamas have agreed to keep their fire. Still, no progress has been made towards a permanent solution to prevent this from happening again. The Trump administration was able to mediate transactions between Israel and some Arab governments, Resolving direct hostilities between Israel and Palestines.

Israel’s geopolitical position is stronger than ever. Criticism of that action will continue from all sides, but no one will act effectively to force the government to change its approach to Palestinians. And Palestinian leadership remains fragmented.Decision by the Palestinian Authority Postpone recent elections indefinitely The high probability that Hamas won would mean leaving Israel conveniently without a Palestinian negotiating partner who could speak for sure for all Palestinians.

The Biden administration understands all of this, as it could cost a majority in one or both Democratic homes in the limited time it takes to advance the agenda through parliament before the November 2022 elections. , The president is not looking for a fight he can’t win.

4. When that happens again, Biden has no more leverage than he had this time.

He said Israel did not want to threaten the blockage of financial or military support to change Israeli policy.U.S. sends Israel $ 3.8 billion in military aid Each year, Biden was central to the 2016 agreement between Israel and the Obama administration. “I think the idea of ​​withdrawing military aid from Israel on the condition that Israel changes certain policies is absolutely exorbitant,” he said early in the campaign for President Biden in October 2019. It would not have been possible to withdraw from the pledge that Hamas had launched a rocket into Israel, and there is no evidence that Biden would consider such an option.

5. Even if Biden wants a pressure campaign, Congress does not support it.

in spite of Calls from some progressive Democrats Three-quarters of members of the House of Representatives signed to suspend support for Israel without changing Israeli policy letter Last month the United States pledged not to impose any conditions on US assistance to Israel.

6. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is uniting Republicans and increasingly dividing Democrats.

Biden has heard it from both sides over the last two weeks. Republicans have accused Biden of failing to stand up for loyal allies and fellow democracy under direct attacks by Muslim terrorists. (US, EU, and UK all have Hamas military sector Terrorist group.“President Biden must remain strong against the growing voice within his own party, which creates false equivalence between the terrorist invaders and the responsible state that defends itself,” the Senate said. Republican leader Mitch McConnell said last week.

Many Democrats continue to support the absolute right to protect the Israeli population, but others say the attack on Gaza is overkill.This criticism criticizes Israel “Apartheid state” It can also stubborn Israeli long-time defenders, such as Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ), who said he “has serious problems” with an Israeli strike in Gaza before the ceasefire. Menendez saidComplete accounting Actions that led to the death of civilians and the destruction of the media. “

7. Biden’s inability to act decisively during this episode will have a broader impact on foreign policy.

In Iran’s nuclear agreement negotiations, this makes it difficult for both sides to make the necessary compromises to reach an agreement before Iran’s elections. The Iranians consider Israel to be completely dominated by the United States, and Iran’s support for Hamas, especially the supply of weapons, makes Biden’s domestic politics of trading more difficult. The story also cultivates China’s belief in America’s decline.

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