The COVID-19 risk of vaccinated people is about the same as “getting in the car”, recent data suggest


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The probability that a vaccinated person will be infected with COVID-19 has changed as the more contagious Delta variant has become dominant in the US pandemic, but probably not as much as you might think. David Leonhard writes on Tuesday New York Times.. In July, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported “the” horrifying fact “that people were vaccinated with a delta variant of the COVID virus. Carried about the same viral load “To their nose and throat as unvaccinated people,” but newer data “suggest that the real picture is not so disturbing.”

Statistics for Utah, Virginia and King County, Washington (Seattle) —Three areas to report detailed data on COVID-19 infection by vaccination status — ”is about 1 in 5,000 vaccinated Americans. Consistent with the idea that people are COVID positive every day. In the last few weeks. ” Leonhard writesIn areas with high vaccination rates, social distances, and high mask usage, such as Seattle, the odds are “probably less than 1 in 10,000.”

Risk is not zero — that’s why Axios‘Felix salmon notebookThe risk of 1 / 5,000 daily is about 7% per year of getting sick with COVID-19. Leonhard then shakes off an undiagnosed breakthrough case. Because they are “often so mild that people are unaware of them and do not pass the virus on to anyone else.”

However, in reality, “the risk of getting any version of the virus is small and the risk of getting a serious illness remains negligible when vaccinated.” Leonhard writes.. “In Seattle these days, one in one million vaccinated people is admitted to a hospital with COVID symptoms. The risk is close to zero and cannot be easily dealt with by the human mind. I The best attempt is to say that the COVID risk of most vaccinated people is as great as the risk that people unknowingly accept every day, such as getting in a car. “

You can read Leonhardt’s entire case and his explanation of why viral load “may be irrelevant” when vaccinated. so New York Times..

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