Climate “emergency”?Not so fast
By mandating the United States once again on the Paris Agreement, and by very clearly signaling that “climate” will be central to its policy, the Biden administration will give other governments a crusade against the possible “climate emergency”. Joined the. The term “crusade” is used with caution because climate enthusiasm is similar to the medieval crusade against foreign non-believers and heretics in their own country. There is even a crusade of children’s climate. The medieval Crusaders claim Deus vult, “God wants it.” This is the ultimate virtue signal slogan. Few medieval European leaders could resist the temptation to join the Crusades. Medieval elites can rely on earthly rewards to add to their heavenly treasures. God’s enemies, and little people, paid the bill. Some climatic crusades have evoked a destiny, while others have used words reminiscent of the millennial kingdom. But most people claim to follow the mission of science. We are both scientists who can prove that the research literature does not support the climate emergency claim. Also, there is no one. Strange predictions, such as dangerously accelerating sea level rise, increasingly extreme weather, more deadly wildfires, and unprecedented warming, are all of the fire and brimstone used to stir fanaticism in the medieval Crusaders. Not as accurate as preaching. True believers claim that this emergency can only be avoided by eliminating greenhouse gas emissions. Greenhouse gases include water vapor, methane, nitrous oxide, which are ubiquitous, and above all, when fossil fuels are used to power and generate electricity for transportation and to produce the comfort of modern life. It contains carbon dioxide, which is the released gas. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere warm the surface of the earth with sunlight. However, they absorb some of the heat radiation from the surface and the atmosphere. Otherwise, it will be cooled more efficiently by escaping directly into space. Greenhouse gases (and clouds) keep the Earth’s surface temperature tens of degrees Celsius warmer than it would be without them. So far, the Crusaders of Climate have refrained from blaming water vapor and clouds for making the greatest contribution to the Earth’s greenhouse effect. Carbon dioxide, demonized as “carbon pollution,” is an unlikely villain. Green plants use the energy of sunlight to produce sugar and other organic molecules of life from carbon dioxide and water molecules. A by-product of photosynthesis is oxygen in our atmosphere. Each person exhales about 2 pounds of “pollutant” carbon dioxide daily. Scientists familiar with radiation transmission do not deny that increased carbon dioxide can warm the surface. However, warming is small and benign. In fact, history shows that warming a few degrees Celsius (extending the growing season) is good for humankind. The golden age of classical Roman civilization took place during the warmer months. The cooling period with barbarian invasion, famine and plague was bad. Barbara Tuchman characterizes times such as the “disastrous 14th century” in her book “The Far Mirror.” More carbon dioxide will certainly increase the productivity of agriculture and forestry. Over the past century, the Earth has already become significantly green as a result of a modest increase in CO2 from about 0.03 percent to 0.04 percent of atmospheric molecules. More CO2 has also contributed significantly to the increase in yields over the last 50 years. The benefits of more CO2 on plants have been documented in hundreds of scientific studies. Water vapor and the clouds that condense from it warm the surface of the earth at least four times more than carbon dioxide. Paleoclimate data show that there is little correlation between CO2 and climate, suggesting that the impact of CO2 is actually small. Just doubling the CO2 concentration should raise the Earth’s surface temperature by about 1 C. The Climate Crucifix uses computer models that include clouds, atmospheric and ocean convection heat transfer, and other factors to claim that “positive feedback” raises expected warming to 4.5C. that’s all. Perhaps the direct consequences of the change will be amplified. This violates Le Chatelier’s principle that “if the sedentary system is disrupted, it is adjusted to reduce the changes made to it.” The Crusaders like to claim that the climate violates Le Chatelier’s principles and there is a “turning point”. Given that the levels of carbon dioxide that have prevailed in much of Earth’s history are changing at much higher levels, life is unlikely to survive if such a turning point exists. Neither modern observations nor geological records support the computer-based claim that CO2 is the “control knob” for the Earth’s climate. During the last few thousand years, when fossil fuel use was negligible, warming of the same or greater than today has been observed many times. A thousand years ago, Greenland helped Scandinavian farmers grow barley and other crops that are really warmer than they are today and can no longer be grown due to the cold. In another Crusade enthusiasm, some climate change warriors are a source of minor greenhouse gases such as methane from ruminant livestock and paddy rice, and nitrous oxide, mainly from the use of fertilizers. We want to abolish traditional agriculture and ranches. .. (In this context, the word “minor” needs to be explained. Warming per added methane molecule is about 30 times warming per added carbon dioxide molecule. Carbon dioxide molecule is 300 times. Therefore, the warming added annually from methane is about one-tenth of the slight warming from carbon dioxide.) This is the government’s signing of the Paris Agreement. It can threaten the lives of farmers in your country. However, as mentioned above, methane warming is only one tenth of the moderate and beneficial warming of more carbon dioxide. The Crusaders against methane and nitrous oxide are all painful and have no benefit to farmers and those who consume their produce. A serious review of policy-related climate science has been postponed for a long time. The Crusaders said, “Science is settled. It’s time to act!” But the actual science is never settled, and the scientific truth is not determined by consensus or political diktats. Consistency with observation is a measure of scientific truth. Climate models predict warming two to three times higher than observed. They have already been tampered with. The soon-to-be-published Unsettled by physicist and New York University professor Stephen Kunin, convincingly explains some of the issues that a quality review reveals. There are no climatic emergencies. Americans should not be trampled by the crusades in a dire climate. The medieval Crusaders did far more harm than good, destroyed the lives of many decent people of all faiths, and left a bitter legacy that complicates international relations and social harmony to this day. A crusade with a climate that destroys the economy and ultimately kills it would be just as bad or worse. Richard Lindzen is an honorary professor of atmospheric science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Alfred P. Sloan, a fellow of numerous professional associations, and a member of the National Academy of Sciences. William Happer is an emeritus professor of physics at Princeton University, a fellow of many professional associations, and a member of the National Academy of Sciences.