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New York Times

How Democrats Defeated in a Red Place Helped Biden

Ebony Carter faced an uphill when he decided to run for the Georgia Senate last year. Her deep Republican district south of Atlanta hasn’t elected Democrats since 2001, and Democrats haven’t even campaigned for seats since 2014. The Democratic Party was able to win it. It proved to be correct. Carter lost 40% of the votes, which was the most liberal in a few years. But her run may have helped another candidate, Joe Biden. Signing up for the morning newsletter from the New York Times The president, who won 12,000 votes in Georgia, is small from the state’s conservative region if at least one local Democrat is below the ballot. However, it received an important boost. According to a new survey by Run for Something, it is an organization that specializes in recruiting and supporting liberal candidates. The discovery extended to the state’s reddest district. This phenomenon seemed to be happening nationwide. According to a survey, Biden performed 0.3% to 1.5% better last year in a conservative state legislature district where the Democrats challenged than in a district where the Republicans did not protest. The analysis uses district-level data available in eight states: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, Texas, Kansas, and New York to control factors such as education and compete with disputed districts. It was carried out by comparing the undisturbed districts. This study showed the opposite Coattail effect. Low-level candidates running in near-desperate situations, traditionally regarded by the Democratic Party as a non-winning, low-investment to non-investment territory, help the national or state-wide numbers at the top of the ballot. I did. On behalf of the Downballot candidate, who benefits from the popular national candidates of the same party. “The whole theory behind it is that these candidates are supercharged organizers,” said Ross Morales Rocketto, co-founder of Run for Something. “They are people in the community who have one-on-one conversations with voters in ways that are not possible in state-wide campaigns.” This idea is not new, but the potential for such a reverse Coattail effect. This is the first time a comprehensive survey has been conducted on the issue, and the Democratic Party will strengthen its strategy for next year’s midterm elections. When Howard Dean became chairman of the Democratic National Committee in 2005, he established the “Fifty-State Strategy” of the party at all levels and in all states, and even in solid Republican districts. Attempted to build infrastructure and candidate recruitment. If at least one Democrat was in operation in every county, it was expected to help the party lay a larger foundation for future elections. Dean faced skepticism from national strategists who believed in traditional ways of concentrating limited campaign resources in the Swing district. After his tenure, the strategy was no longer supported. What tends to upset the strategies of these 50 states and all districts is the limited resources they have in their elections and the disproportionate amount of money they put into certain races that are considered particularly important and victorious. Is a realistic consideration that inevitably leads to. “If you have a candidate dedicated to ground games, that might help, but usually campaigns at the bottom of the spectrum don’t have that money, and it’s certainly no longer done by the party,” Ed said. Goas said, Republican voter. He said one of the reasons for this could be that it’s difficult to control the ballot message if the campaign at the top of the ticket has a different approach to the problem than the local candidate. Said there is. For the past few cycles, the Democratic Party’s main priority has been to recapture the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the President. Now that the party controls all three, Downballot organizers want the party to shift some of its focus to state legislative elections. Morales Rocket expressed hope that the study would begin a conversation among Democrats on how to invest in state and local races. During the 2020 election cycle, Senate Democratic campaigns such as Amy McGrath in Kentucky and Jamie Harrison in South Carolina raised huge amounts of money, and in some cases raised $ 90 million in a single campaign. Exceeded. By comparison, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Commission said it had raised $ 51 million for legislative races at 86 chambers of commerce in 44 states. “Now that we’ve finished the 2020 elections, we really need to make sure that this is what we’re focusing on,” Morales Rocket said. “We elected Joe Biden, but Trump and Trumpism, and what he said wasn’t gone, we could lose everything again.” And those losses It is already known what it will look like, Jessica Post, chairman of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, argued. “When the Republicans took control of 21 state legislatures in 2010, we lost control for almost a decade to win the US legislature,” she said. “We are currently facing challenges in maintaining the US Senate, and Republicans are eroding our voting rights in these state legislatures.” Legislatures run by Republicans across the country since the presidential elections. The legislature has drafted a bill restricting access to voting, and the Democratic Party is calling for additional local party infrastructure. According to Morales Rocket, the way to get that investment and attention from the Democratic National Committee is to emphasize how a bottom-up approach can help the party at the national level as well. The post reflected that feeling. “Many of the components of American democracy are really built in the state,” she said. Republican pollster Jim Hobert said the Republican Party has been wrapping the Democratic Party in legislative infrastructure for years. “The Democratic Party is fairly open at the legislative level and is catching up,” he said. “For some reason, Democrats are more excited about federal race.” Mr. Hobart wants voters to run up and down the ballot because neither party knows which district is competitive. He said he should think. For Republicans in 2020, some of these amazing districts were along the southern border of Texas, which was formerly a relatively blue region. “It was a shock to everyone that Republicans ran as hard as they did in these districts,” Hobert said. “But if you have all the candidates, that means you’re ready to take advantage of that infrastructure in a good year.” DNC reviews state legislature and other downballot racing strategies in the medium term. Therefore, the new survey is just one consideration. The Commission is committed to increasing investment in such races to help win traditional battlefield states and become more competitive in the blue-prone reddish states. .. DNC officials who refused to talk about records of the investigation pointed out Kansas, which has a Democratic governor but voted 15 percent points for former President Donald Trump, as an example of the state they want to put. Put the findings into action. State Democrats are preparing to re-election Governor Laura Kelly, and Kansas Democratic Secretary-General Ben Marys said he would like to test the theory. He said different types of field organization are needed to run a Democratic campaign in the bright red district. “If a state party can’t find a Democrat, the area is so red that there are some counties that can’t form an organized county party,” he said. “But if we can run even a lone Democrat, we can find it and give some of those votes. You know the analogy: the rising tide is all Democrats. Some democratic voters in Kansas are in a general election focused on parliament and local candidates, rather than on a telephone heading with Byden, by telephone bank campaigners. I realized that I had more success with the voters. They hope that building local connections within the state will help Kelly’s campaign. In Georgia, Run for Something believes that Carter’s presence on ballots has contributed significantly to Biden’s performance in her area of ​​the state. The group said that district-level data alone could be misleading and should be combined with other factors to take into account in the analysis, but Biden said Carters belonged to Newton, Butts and Henry. We received an average of 47% of the votes in one county. There is the 110th district. This was 5 percentage points better than Hillary Clinton’s performance in 2016. Carter said he was about to start grassroots momentum in the area. “For me, running for the office was never an ambition,” she said. “It was even more so because of the need for a place to live.” The Carters district has grown exponentially over the last decade, bringing about demographic changes and different approaches to politics. Through her previous political organization and her own campaign, many people in her district, including friends and family, said when local elections were, why they were important, or liberal or at the local level. I knew I didn’t know what a conservative stance would look like. Carter said he spent a lot of time educating people about the importance of voting during the campaign, especially in local races that have more impact on everyday life, such as school and police funding. “I thought it was a lot of work that people didn’t want to do, or felt it didn’t benefit them,” she said. “Not all races are won, but you can win with legwork.” This article was originally published in The New York Times. © 2021 The New York Times Company

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