Much remains unknown about the drone incident over the Kremlin on Wednesday.
But a US think tank says it is “highly likely” a Russian false flag operation.
Some commentators cautiously point to potential political gains for Russia.
A US think tank said it was “highly likely” that Russia carried out the drone attack on the Kremlin as a false flag operation, and other observers wondered how politically advantageous the incident was to Russian President Vladimir Putin. pointed out that there is
Russia claims two drones exploded – one of which was caught on camera – Sent to the Kremlin as a “planned act of terrorism and an attempt on the life of the president” early Wednesday. condemned the attack by Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky immediately denied any involvement.
The Kremlin was largely unscathed in the incident, and Putin was not inside the building at the time.
As a military expert told an insidermany details of the incident and the ultimate responsibility for it remain unconfirmed as of Thursday.
However, the American think tank Institute for War Studies (ISW)Daily updates on the detailed status of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Russia has strengthened its multi-layered air defenses around Moscow, making it “extremely unlikely” that two drones would be close enough to detonate “just above the center of the Kremlin,” the ISW said. Stated. .
A think tank pointed out Location information image Russian Installation of an advanced Pantiri surface-to-air missile defense system around Moscow earlier this year.
Moscow and the Central Industrial Zone are defended by the 1st Air and Missile Defense Force, armed with S-300 or S-400 surface-to-air missile systems. As Defense News reportedThe Russian Ministry of Defense is also working We will further enhance these features by the end of the year.
The ISW said the highly coordinated public statements made in the immediate aftermath of the incident also suggest it was not a surprise to Russia.
Meanwhile, Russia’s much-hyped annual Victory Day celebrations are looming on May 9, but have been scaled back nationwide due to security concerns.
Some observers have argued that the event could turn into a statement of opposition to an invasion of Ukraine. As reported by the BBC.
The Kremlin could use the drone incident to justify further downsizing, which “frames the war in Ukraine as directly threatening Russia’s adherence to a respected historical event.” The ISW writes that it will help
Some commentators have speculated that Russia has potential political gains in carrying out such attacks, both domestically and internationally.
“There needs to be some kind of justification as to why Russia continues to stay in Ukraine,” Dr. Marina Milon, a postdoctoral fellow in the Department of Warfare at King’s College London, told Insider, hypothesizing the incident.
“And this has a message to the domestic public to say, ‘Look how dangerous Ukraine is. They’re even trying to kill Putin.'”
“The motives are all really in Russia’s favor,” said a British defense source, who asked not to be identified. told Sky News correspondent Tamara Cohen.
The source echoed Milon’s sentiments, saying, “It will encourage the masses to rally. It will be an excuse for more random and reckless bombings. Trying to get Russian sympathy for Ukraine.” rice field.
also in Russia false flag attack preformand is famous for making Clearly false claims about international affairs.
But other theories, such as that it was a warning signal from Ukraine or that it was the work of Russian dissidents, are not completely closed. An expert told an insider.
some commentators said Ukraine’s denial is undermined by the fact that several incidents on Russian territory have been attributed to Kiev.
Dr. James Patton Rogers, a drone expert, said the drone used may have been a Ukrainian UJ-22, possibly used in an earlier attempt at a Gazprom site near Moscow in February. He said the previous attack may have been a test to get a feel for Moscow’s air defenses.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense and Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately respond to Insider’s request for comment.
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