This material was recorded as part of NV and The Economist’s World Ahead 2023 Summit.
What could make Russia’s leaders decide that it would be better to end the war? This question is actually complicated, but from our point of view, it is simple at the same time. Only the strongest support from the West can make them stop this war and withdraw their troops. Our partner, after his 11 months in this war, is finally beginning to understand that this aid cannot provide us like a slice of salami. Instead, you should help with whatever is available.
Of course, there are internal Russian factors, some of which we understand and see, others we do not. Some even doubt the president is there, such as President Zelensky openly questioning whether Putin is alive. So, under the circumstances we currently live in, I think this is the only answer as we are seeing Wagnerite gaining even more weight after Pyrrhus’ victory around Soledar in my opinion .
China’s factor is decisive and its role will growThis is clear not only to us, not just the United States, but to our allies and partners. Europe is also reconsidering the role of China after the war. To be honest, I’m not very optimistic here, and I’m not convinced that China’s role or its leadership status is becoming more acceptable or beneficial to us. is also true. There were different predictions for this question, so this is also not important.
I look forward to the day when all of Ukraine, including Crimea, will be liberated.
In my opinion, the process of deciding how to position itself in relation to Russia is still underway in Beijing. We understand and know China’s position at the United Nations when it comes to voting on resolutions that are so important to China – on territorial integrity and sovereignty – so perhaps we can’t even call it a kind of neutrality. Here, of course, the position is correct. Will our relationship be strategic? We are not sure, but we definitely need to develop a truly new military strategy for our official relationship with Beijing.
Here the role of the main allies becomes important. As you know, Americans have their own approach, but the role of Germany and the European Union will also be important. That is because, until recently, and after all, the Chinese factor has been perceived only through an economic prism. China was and remains the largest trading partner for both the United States and Europe. For many, this position remains profitable because it offers inexpensive goods and is suitable for everyone.
From my personal experience in Germany, at least, I feel that Germans are beginning to seriously wonder if nothing has changed on a relationship, especially on a political level. After all, before all of this, Chancellor Merkel actually visited every year during his tenure, and politically, everything was presented to German and European society as a perfectly peaceful process, with both sides benefiting. I just received No risk. This war has cast doubt on this truth.
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Are there other long-term security formulas for Ukraine besides NATO? This is a very important issue. Because, as you know, a whole group of experts, the so-called Yermak-McFaul group, has been working on this issue for a long time. Prominent leaders from many countries, including Germany, participate. This work has been fruitful in principle, and the results are specifically aimed at understanding whether there are alternative assurance mechanisms.
I feel that the members of this group themselves have come to the conclusion that no one has yet come up with anything better than NATO’s Article 5.Other nuclear powers, and will continue to do so de facto be provided by the NATO treaty LegalPersonally, and frankly, I don’t think there is a realistic and effective alternative to Ukraine joining NATO.
Fortunately or unfortunately, these footprints remain. We are having difficulties even with our partners who are having very difficult dialogues. They are the very Americans who support us most militarily, but who still have work to do when it comes to NATO membership. But I am confident it can be done, and I believe I can prove to the current US administration that there is no alternative to this step.
Also Read: Ukraine must take back Crimea. how does this happen?
The tank coalition we proposed in October is now, thankfully, already taking shape, because there are more than 2,000 Leopard 2 or 1 tanks in service in the EU countries. If each state gives at least a small share, it can already form a large combat force. 200-300 tanks, even in our opinion, is enough to actually plan a spring counterattack.
The political pressure we have been able to create against the current German government and, if you wish, against Mr. Scholz personally, is now great and powerful. I worked on issues like this from the first day of the war until his mid-October, and unfortunately these decisions were made almost entirely as a result of the pressures we were trying to create. I was. And somehow the government made the decision we wanted. Why did Mr. Scholz behave like this? no one has an explanation. The Germans themselves come up with various conspiracy theories. Putin somehow frightened him not only with nuclear war, but also with retaliation and missile attacks on German territory. They don’t know there, but it is clear that the Germans themselves are so shocked by Scholz’s obstructionist position that no one can find a logical or rational explanation for this.
Also Read: Donbass problem
How can the people of the occupied Donbass district be reintegrated into Ukraine? They have been under the influence of Russian propaganda for over eight years and many of them have fought Ukrainians. It’s probably not an easy job because it’s hard to live under the pressure of Russian propaganda. In fact, since 2014, almost all generations have grown up in this situation. But I’m optimistic in this sense whether it will be a painful process. As we have experience in other states including a divided Germany. Of course, it was a different situation, but from 1945 he was in 1989, 44 years have passed, but the influence of this can still be felt. Many people still have romantic visions of what happened back then, but anything is possible.
In short, I look forward to the day when all of Ukraine, including Crimea, will be liberated. Photographs tell the story of the liberation of territories that had been occupied for more than half a year. So I think it will be done very quickly. Those who do not want to live there have already left or will leave. And the majority of our compatriots will certainly stay.
Read the original article at Ukraine’s new voice