Tropical Cyclone Henri poses an ever-increasing threat to New England


The tropical cyclone Henri, currently located about 490 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, is projected to intensify into a hurricane on Friday and may approach or land in southern New England later this weekend.

Important reason: Slow-moving category 1 hurricanes or strong tropical cyclones that rotate near Cape Cod can hit the area, especially with high waves and coastal floods. This can be heightened by rising sea levels due to long-term climate change.

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News promotion: Tropical Cyclone Henri may now be slowly moving west-southwest, but forecasts predict it will be pulled north towards New England by the weekend. If it landed in southern New England as a hurricane, it would be the first hurricane to land at this strength (Category 1 or higher) since Hurricane Bob in 1991.

detail: Tropical cyclones and hurricanes are very powerful meteorological systems, but they do not drive themselves. Instead, it is steered by the characteristics of the surrounding atmosphere, such as cold fronts and cyclones.

  • In this case, there is a high-pressure area northeast of Henri, and the circulation around this high pressure pushes the storm to the west-southwest.

  • However, by Friday and Saturday, the cold front dug southeast toward the east coast, and the wind blowing from south to north was a bay stream.

  • Depending on the timing of this turn and the subsequent pivot to the northeast, Henri could land somewhere in southern New England or cover the coastline with a skirt.

A combination of computer model predictions from TS Henri’s European and American models. Graphic: Tomer Burg

Threat level: Both scenarios are likely to have significant consequences such as heavy rains, strong winds and coastal floods, especially in Long Island, Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket and Cape Cod. However, given the high uncertainty of orbit prediction, Providence and Boston can also be affected.

  • The timing of these threats is from Sunday to Monday, with the storm slowly spinning northeast and returning to the ocean.

  • The National Hurricane Center will publish tropical cyclone and hurricane clocks in southern New England on Friday.

  • “There is an increased risk of storm surge, wind and rain effects in southern New England and parts of eastern Long Island,” the Hurricane Center wrote in a forecast discussion posted on its website Thursday morning.

  • “Now it’s a good idea to start preparing for a storm that could land. [southern New England] -A good reference is Preparations need to be completed on Sunday morning as strong tropical cyclone winds are likely to occur first. In the event of a temporary loss of electricity, it’s a good idea to have extra cash, gas in the car, and non-perishable food on hand, “said the Boston Meteorological Forecast.

Yes, but: Henri is currently fighting the wind shear that occurs when the wind blows in different directions and / or at different speeds with height. This is hindering Thursday’s intensification.

  • Shear is expected to decrease on Friday, but intensity predictions have more uncertainty compared to storm trajectory predictions. Storm intensity plays a role in determining its course, and weak tropical cyclones are more likely to move further east away from land.

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