Trying to take the first Republican election test in the post-Trump era


Amanda Chase’s candidacy for this year’s Governor of Virginia faced a dilemma with the state Republicans that reflected the challenges facing the Kuomintang. How do you not only enjoy the benefits of trumpism, but also reduce costs?

You can keep former President Donald Trump and voters drawn to the party because of his political style, but at the same time, Trump-like candidates like Chase who are likely to lose the winning elections. Can I push, tweak, or manipulate it out of the way?

Virginia Republicans may have found a way to do just that by using the reformist nationally-promoted voting system as a tool to reduce radicalism and polarization.

Virginia Senator Amanda Chase, R-Chesterfield, Right, on Thursday, April 1, 2021, in court with lawyer Tim Anderson during a hearing break to dismiss a proceeding in a federal court in Richmond, Virginia. leave.  (Steve Hellber / AP Photo)

Virginia Senator Amanda Chase will leave the court in Richmond, Virginia, with her lawyer Tim Anderson on Thursday. (Steve Hellber / AP Photo)

Senator Amanda Chase touts lies about cheating in the 2020 elections Partner with yourself With supporters of QAnon conspiracy theory Gathered support from the militia..Her two intimate supporters Appeared next to her When she announced her candidacy arrested After the fall elections, outside Philadelphia’s ballot counting area, he carried hidden weapons and loaded 160 ammunition into his vehicle.they I was accused Attempted to thwart elections and plots.

Tracking Called by Trump Declare martial law so that he can overturn his defeat in the hands of Joe Biden.

Chase has been seen as a legitimate threat to winning a Republican nomination, but in Virginia, where Republicans haven’t won state-wide races since 2009, she aims to win the general election and become governor. It was widely thought that it was not.

However, Virginia’s Republican decision to use ranked option votes when selecting candidates on May 8 has significantly reduced her chances.The party used a ranked elective vote to elect its chair last summer..

In regular primaries promoted by Chase, candidates can win the nomination with less than 50% of the votes cast. They need more than one. Therefore, Chase should have won the nomination, with 30 or 40% of the votes cast, and three more mainstream candidates splitting the remaining 60-70%. This is similar to how Trump himself won the president’s GOP nomination in 2016, even though he received less than half of the votes cast in the Republican primary.

However, in ranked votes, candidates must win a majority to win the nomination.

The mechanism is as follows. Voters do not select only one candidate. They list their preferences in order, and if none of the candidates win 50.1%, essentially the candidate with the most 1st and 2nd votes wins.

Voting for ranked options is a bit different between the various jurisdictions that implemented it, and the Republicans in Virginia have not yet clarified how to distribute the second-place vote. Usually, the bottom-ranked candidate is eliminated, the voter’s second-place vote is distributed, and so on until someone wins the majority.

Sean Kenny, former Executive Secretary of the Republican Party of Virginia, said:

Former US President Donald Trump will speak at the Conservative Political Activities Council (CPAC) in Orlando, Florida, on Sunday, February 28, 2021.  (Elijah Nouvelage / Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Former President Donald Trump at the Conservative Political Activities Council in Orlando on February 28. (Elijah Nouvelle Large / Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Virginia is a state where the Republicans can’t afford to indulge in a hardcore right wing if they want to win the state as a whole. The last Republican to win the state-wide elections was Bob McDonnell, who won governor in 2009. That year, Republican Bill Boring won the position of Vice-Governor, and Republican Kenkuccineri won the Attorney General’s race.

However, a few years later, in 2013, Kutchinelli defeated the governor’s moderate boring in the Republican preliminary elections and then lost to Democratic Terry McCorriff in a close election. The following summer, Republican Republican House of Representatives Eric Cantor’s majority affairs lost a primary election to college economics professor Dave Bratt, who was helped by a conservative talk radio personality, accusing him of being vulnerable to immigration. Bratt continued to win the general election.

Since these two elections, Virginia’s Republicans have moved further to the right, like the state. Grow more diverse And he cast more votes on the Democratic Party. Democratic turnout in the governor’s election went from 1.1 million in 2013 to 1.4 million in 2017. In the presidential election, it increased from 2 million in 2016 to 2.4 million in 2020. Republican turnout is also increasing, but not at the same pace.

“Virginia is bluish …. Guns, babies, and Trump aren’t the election message for victory across the state. Daniel Gade, who was nominated for the Republican Party’s U.S. Senator in 2020, said: It states as follows. Recent interview On a local talk radio show.

Gade, who lost his bid to Democratic Senator Mark Warner, said Republicans need to discuss economic growth and school reopening. School reopening can be a major issue for the election year in Virginia, especially if a significant number of schools do not return full-time in the fall. Virginia, along with New Jersey, is one of two states that elects governors and other state-wide positions in odd-numbered years.

The governor’s election is at the crossroads of the Virginia Republican Party, Kenny said.

“The best demon killer we can use is the convention floor battle that finally points out what Chase represents and pulls Reagan. The famous” Time of Choice “speech.

“We’ve been plagued since Dave Brad defeated Eric Cantor in 2014. We’re either conservative to drive away the devil, or what alt-right nationalism really believes in Republicans. Succumb to the idea that they are bets. And we can do that … unless the conservatives divide themselves in six ways on Sunday. “

Republican Rep. Dave Bratt raises his right hand while his wife Laura is watching during a photo shoot of the vow at the ceremony with Speaker of the House John Bener on Wednesday, November 12, 2014.  (Bill Clark / CQ Roll Call via Getty Images)

On November 12, 2014, Republican Rep. David Bratt and his wife, Laura, took an oath at a ceremony with Speaker of the House John Bener. (Bill Clark / CQ Roll Call, via Getty Images)

A ranked voting system is a tool that ensures that the majority does not split support in a way that allows someone like Chase to exploit the failure of collective action. And as a result, Chase isn’t happy that the Republicans in Virginia have embraced this practice.

Tracking Proceedings We oppose parties over the decision to hold a convention instead of a primary election. That is, voters must register as delegates in advance to vote.She also has Called party delay In finalizing the details of how to participate in “the oppression of about 2 million voters who voted for President Trump.”But her proceeding Dismissed During February.

For now, the contest is expected to drop to two business leaders (Glenn Youngkin and Pete Snyder) and one veteran lawmaker, Kirk Cox, who was the majority leader of Virginia House from 2010 to 2018.

Meanwhile, Chase has been crouching defensively since the assault on the US Capitol on January 6.she is It also threatens to run independently If Snyder won the nomination, he said the tournament was “illegal” to her.

“I think it really was the beginning of her end,” Chris Saxman, a former Republican state representative who is currently doing political consulting, told Yahoo News. The chase campaign did not respond to the request for comment.

Chase had many controversies before January 6, but the day before the riot, she I played liveStream interview One of two men arrested in Philadelphia for a weapon hidden outside the ballot-counting center with Joshua Mathias on Facebook. Chase introduced Mathias as the organizer of the next day’s trample rally. And she herself attended an elliptical rally. There Trump spoke before his supporters marched to the Capitol and tried to violently stop proving the results of the presidential election.

Chase said he did not march to the Capitol, but she noted that she was one of the three state legislators who attended the rally. And a few days after the riot, She called the riots that hit the Houses of Parliament “patriots.”

“She exaggerated her hand,” Sachsman said. Before January 6th, “She was there … it was pretty good.”

Protrump supporters will attack the US Capitol after rallying with President Donald Trump in Washington, DC on January 6, 2021.  (Samuel Corum / Getty Images)

Trump supporters will attack the US Capitol on January 6th. (Samuel Corum / Getty Images)

However, her official Facebook page, which has more than 125,000 followers since the Capitol riots, Stop forever.. She still has a personal page, but her ability to talk to supporters via social media usually gives her a way to circumvent traditional financing methods, including asking the business community for large donations. I did.

Tracking Leaded to polls Conducted by Christopher Newport University in early February, it received 17% of support, but 55% was undecided in a poll, not a poll that measured the support of a small number of people attending the party convention.

And chase doesn’t seem to be popular even in some of the state’s most conservative pockets. She attended a service at the Leesburg Megachurch on Palm Sunday. Hosted conservative activist For the “pray, vote, stand” city hall earlier this year.

After the service, Chase complained that he was not allowed to bring his gun into the service and was not asked to speak to the congregation as well as the Attorney General candidate.

“To be honest, is that all you can do to hold back your tears? It hurts to make a lot of sacrifices just to be treated like a third-class citizen.” Chase wrote On her personal Facebook page. “The Bible says that we give honor where we need it and pray for those who are authoritative.”

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