San Jose, California – The quake that shook parts of the San Francisco Bay Area may have been a precursor to a larger quake that could hit in the next few days.
of 5.1 magnitude earthquake It hit just before noon near Alum Rock, just southeast of San Jose. It was felt widely throughout the Bay Area. Tremors have been reported as far away as San Diego and Lake Tahoe.
‘Significant’ earthquake rocks Northern California on Tuesday
A few hours after the earthquake, FOX Weather spoke with Dr. Kimberly Brisniuk, a seismic geologist at San Jose State University.
“There’s a 67% chance that a larger mainshock will occur within the next week,” Blisniuk said, noting that the figure reflected predictions of a magnitude of 3 or higher. “So what we felt could be a precursor to a bigger earthquake.”
“At the magnitude 5 we just felt, there’s a 2% chance,” she added.
as of Wednesday morning, U.S. Geological Survey Predictions For earthquakes of magnitude 3 or greater, 21% within a day and 45% within a week. Fewer than 1% predicted earthquakes of magnitude 5 or greater.
at least there was three other tremors A magnitude range of 2.7 to 3.5 was reported in the region where Tuesday’s tremor occurred.
Brysniuk said Tuesday’s quake occurred along the Hayward-Caraveras fault, which is part of the larger San Andreas fault system.
“These faults basically correspond to movement between two large tectonic plates,” says Blisniuk. “The two plates are the North American plate and the Pacific plate.”
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according to USGS, the Caraveras fault last experienced a significant earthquake in October 2007. It was a magnitude 5.4 earthquake near Alum Rock.
California experiences two to three earthquakes each year that can cause considerable damage and register magnitudes of 5.5 and above. National Earthquake Information Center.