According to a recent analysis of war games, the US Air Force will have a hard time maintaining pressure on Chinese troops in the event of a conflict around the Taiwan Strait.
Joseph Siracusa, an adjunct professor of political history of international diplomacy at Curtin University, said: I told the Epoch Times.
Operational readiness represents the service’s ability to effectively operate and maintain its systems and procedures.
This rate is important because military involvement can take weeks or months.
“If you want to perform 40 sorties [attacking runs] One day, well, you do math, “Syracuse added.
A professor who worked on wargame models during the Cold War, recent conflict simulations have shown that the distance between Taiwan and the closest US air force base in Kadena, Okinawa, can be a deciding factor in the event of a conflict. He said it became clear.
“If the United States has only one army base within 700 miles of the battlefield, it would be a difficult slogan to fight the war within the near sight of China’s homeland,” he said.
In January, Ellen Road, Secretary of Technology Logistics during the Trump era, said the advanced F-35 fleet was ready for operation. 69 percent, Well below the 80% target set by former Secretary of Defense James Mattis.
The low numbers follow years of Obama-era military budget cuts, with military personnel cut by 10% and ballistic missile projects completely suspended or suspended.
Ironically, missiles will play an important role in keeping the US military away, especially during the first 60 days.
“Although the F-22 and F-35 have very low radar characteristics, the refueling tanker has a large barn radar cross section, which makes it very vulnerable to China’s long-range anti-aircraft missiles,” Siracusa said. Says.
Given the reach of China’s ballistic missile launchers DF-21 and DF-26, US naval aircraft carriers are also out of the question.
“We learned some lessons in Vietnam and the Persian Gulf, where Navy aircraft carriers were able to operate just offshore of the target area and were not attacked,” said Siracusa. “Not so in the Taiwan Strait.”
Since the reelection of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has Hostile rhetoric Towards the island.
In recent months, Chinese military aircraft have also invaded Taiwan’s airspace almost every day, the largest when 20 Chinese military aircraft entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone in late March.
U.S. Indo-Pacific Army Admiral Philip Davidson issued a disastrous warning in response to this accumulation, believing that Beijing could invade Taiwan “in the next six years,” but other analysts will be shorter. I believe there is a possibility.
War game scenario
War game experts like Siracusa believe that the most likely war scenario surrounding Taiwan begins with Beijing’s annual large-scale amphibious landing training, which usually takes place in October off the southeastern coast of the mainland. I am. However, surveillance satellites begin to pick up anomalous activity, more troop movements than usual, and more realistic ones.
Meanwhile, Beijing’s propaganda agency is working overtime to arouse public sentiment and resentment towards Taiwan, especially as it has categorically refused to accept the rules of the Chinese Communist Party.
The United States has responded by deploying bombers at its bases in Guam and Okinawa, increasing naval patrols throughout Taiwan’s waters. Already done..
US surveillance is picking up more worrisome signs of PLA naval aircraft and amphibious forces marshalling on the opposite coast of Taiwan.
When an attack is launched, it probably begins with naval artillery and air strikes targeting Taiwan’s airfields and military bases.
The United States will retaliate with bombings targeting CCP ships, airfields, bases, and missile launch sites.
If desperate enough, Beijing will escalate and target Okinawa, Guam, or Hawaii with intermediate-range ballistic missiles or low-yielding nuclear weapons.
Beijing driven by fear, not expansionism
However, the professor admits that wargame scenarios are only “as strong as the weakest links.” In this case, the scenario depends on either country’s willingness to attack or fire the first shot.
“Unfortunately, arrogance can go beyond common sense,” he said.
Mark Beeson, a professor of international politics at the University of Western Australia, said increasing military power has increased the likelihood of conflict.
“China is digging a big hole. It’s hard to get out of it without losing a huge amount of faces,” he told The Epoch Times.
“The chances of accidents, misjudgments and miscalculations increase day by day,” he added.
Siracusa also states that any move by Beijing was “caused by fear and weakness, not strength or expansionism.”
“The story of expansionism is a lie that the military-industrial complex talks to each other when they go to sell the latest weapons systems,” he said.
“Not controlling Taiwan will, in fact, tell other parts of China that the Chinese Communist Party has lost control,” he added. “Chinese are worried about how the Soviet Union disappeared 74 years later. Five generations later, there is this old rule that it is very difficult to convey the enthusiasm of communism.”
As of 2021, the CCP is in its 72nd year of control over China.
Gather Taiwan’s defenses
In recent weeks, Germany, France, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands have sent warships to accompany existing US Navy aircraft carriers to patrol the South China Sea. The Philippines dispatched fighters to patrol hundreds of Chinese fishing vessels moored in the area.
John Mills, a former director of the Secretary of Defense’s cybersecurity policy, strategy and international affairs, previously told The Epoch Times that the Biden administration should sell “every weapon it demands” to Taiwan.
Taiwan’s diplomatic mission in Washington, DC said,Asymmetric functionIncludes a large investment in long-range missiles that can attack deep into China.
Australia has adopted a similar strategy as a deterrent to military aggression.
Meanwhile, Australia’s second-ranked diplomat, Michael Goldman, said in a podcast hosted by the Australian National University (ANU) that Australia and the United States were “unexpected” about the potential for a conflict over Taiwan. I made it clear that I was working on it.