Ukraine is in a worse shape than you think

Russian attack on Ukraine

Russian attack on Ukraine

On May 12, 2022, a Ukrainian man passed a destroyed Russian tank in a damaged field as a Russian attack continued in Chernihiv Oblast, Ukraine. Credits-Dogukan Keskinkilic-Anadolu Agency

Given how extensively the Ukrainian troops were believed to have been defeated in the early days of Russia’s invasion, not losing the war is said to be a form of Ukrainian victory. The difference between expectations and the amazing resilience of the Ukrainian army is easy to misunderstand the current situation in favor of Ukraine. But what you can’t win hasn’t won yet. Ukraine is far worse than generally believed and needs and will continue to need a tremendous amount of help and support to actually win.

We love the weak. We love the nifty little guy who beats the odds. It fuels our normal hopes for ourselves and allows us to feel morally superior.This is the reason Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky It appealed to the world very well. His rebellion against the odds gave us someone to take root against the bully. While cheering for the chunky, unparalleled Ukrainians, we were also able to relieve some of our shame by leaving them who promised protection.Security guarantee— Dying alone in the snow and mud.

Unfortunately, Zelensky’s leadership and the outflow of international military and humanitarian assistance it elicited could not prevent a shocking level of destruction to Ukrainian cities, economies, and societies. The fact that Kyiv did not fall and Russian troops retreated to the eastern mask indicates that Ukraine is in a worse condition than described in the media.

It is worth remembering that Ukraine has been fighting the Russian invasion since 2014. From 2014 to February 2022, almost 10,000 He was killed in a boiling war in Donbus, but with little or no military progress. Ukraine is now fighting the same army and greater opposition in an expanded theater. This is a testament to the pure courage of the armed forces that Ukraine has managed to withdraw Russians from Kyiv, Kharkov, Chernihiv and the surrounding area, as well as maintain that line since February 24th.

Nevertheless, Russia now controls far more Ukrainian territory than it did before February 24th. Putin’s army holds all intervening territories, and now Luhansk and Donetsk, as well as the entire province of Donbas, whatever is left in Mariupol.For example, the Ukrainian authorities are roughly 60% of Luhansk Prior to the recent Russian invasion, Russian troops now control 80% of the region.They are also about 70% of Zaporizhazia region.Cumulatively, this explains that Russia’s occupied territories have increased from approximately. 7%Including Crimean, more than double that before February now.. Seen this way, not losing is more like losing than winning.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has not disclosed the number of combat casualties to maintain morale, but experts believe that at least 25,000 troops have been lost. 11,000 dead, 18,000 injured —Since the invasion on February 24th. Over the two and a half months of the war, Ukraine’s losses undoubtedly account for at least 10% of the current army. 250,000.. But this is far less than Russian casualties, Over 35,000And is underpinned by the amazing loss of weapons and equipment such as tanks and warships.

read more: Inside the world of Volodymyr Zelensky

Ukraine’s relative success is partly weapons At least 31 Western governments are making donations. Britain sent anti-aircraft, anti-aircraft, anti-aircraft missiles, air defense systems, and other weapons. Slovak S-300 air defense system. US drones, howitzers, missiles, and anti-armor systems. This is just sampling. These weapons allowed Ukraine to maximize its field advantage, harness the greater determination of the military, and take advantage of Russia’s military weaknesses and the apparent lack of proper planning and preparation. .. Without these donations, Kyiv might have fallen.

Ukraine is full of weapons and other military supplies and equipment, but both Pentagon officials and volunteer fighters quietly admit that they lack the ability to absorb so much aid.Lots of equipment and weapons are needed New training use. Even if it is available, it will take some time.Similarly, more than 16,000 inflows Foreign Volunteer Fighter Seemingly a decisive benefit, in reality, most people had no military experience or training. According to Pentagon officials and some of the foreign special forces volunteers on the ground, they proved to be almost always extra mouths for feeding.

Economically, Ukraine has survived, but that’s it.Sanctions against Russia that are expected to cause: 7% shrinkage In GDP, 45-50% GDP collapse Ukraine is least 25% of companies The number of complete outages has dropped from 32% in March to 17% in May, but is closed. However, the Russian Navy’s blockade of Ukrainian ports (Mariupol, Odesa, Kherson, etc.) has hampered both the import of fuel to power the agricultural sector and the export of grains and other Ukrainian products.Not being able to export is sacrificing the Ukrainian economy $ 170 million Per day. Meanwhile, Russia is targeting Ukraine’s fuel depots, grain storage silos and farm tool warehouses, damaging its already tattered supply chain.The power sector is facing Default Because very few Ukrainian citizens and businesses can afford to pay for electricity.

Not only is May an important agricultural month, Naftgas usually begins to buy natural gas in preparation for the cold winters of Ukraine. The state-owned energy giant was already in bad shape before the invasion, and the CEO sought a $ 4.6 billion bailout from the Ukrainian government in September 2021. Currently, it is unclear how the country can prepare due to the lack of a very tight gas market and funding. In winter, temperatures can drop below 20 Fahrenheit. In addition to the tragic 2022-2023 winter outlook, most of the Ukrainian mines are in Donbus, where Russian attacks continue.

The White House is reportedly considering tolerating Ukrainian sovereign debt, which will undoubtedly help Bankova (the equivalent of the Ukrainian White House). And, among other efforts, the € 15 billion debt securities that the European Commission plans to issue to cover the coming months of Ukraine.However, this is not a redone 6 million Women and children who have fled mainly from Ukraine. If men are allowed to leave, that number will almost certainly double.

According to a recent report 25,000-30,000 Returning to Ukraine every day from abroad is encouraging, but Ukraine faced the problem of brain drain before the invasion. The The poorest country In Europe, many citizens were already about to leave.Before the war, Ukrainians Third largest immigrant population In the EU, it is only behind Morocco and Turkey. Currently, the International Labor Agency estimates: 4.8 million jobs Lost in Ukraine, but will reach 7 million if the war continues. And after months of war, children settle in new schools abroad, mothers blend into the new world, waiting for her husband and father to join them. Of course, some will return to Ukraine, but many prioritize family comfort and children’s opportunities over patriotism calls.

Most annoyingly, many Ukrainians still in their own country are beginning to wonder. How it rebuilds itself.. The war destroyed the structure of society. A poltava mother said she no longer trusts her neighbors, who had lived next to her for 40 years, who were considered to be her family before the invasion. A young volunteer, a former civil society activist, explained about the hunting of sabotage agents and how he began to meet Russian sympathizers everywhere.Native Ukrainian speakers of Russian, who make up at least one-third of the population Not comfortable Or I’m afraid to use their native language. Trust was shattered even while nationalism was motivated. No matter how quickly Russia is defeated, rebuilding the community will be a challenge.

In May, the U.S. government decided to symbolically return some of its diplomatic staff to Kyiv, partially reversing the rapid withdrawal of losers when Kyiv was expected to collapse within a few days. ..President Biden finally nominates the United States Ambassador In Ukraine after a leadership gap of over 3 years. This and the messages sent by EU gestures are important. But in the survival of Ukraine, the country is seriously and dangerously weakened, despite our desire to support ourselves to donate pachinko, seeing the story of David defeating Goliath. It has turned into.

Ukraine needs more than a symbol, and more than a weapon. Not losing is not winning, but a long and deep commitment by the Western world is needed to help Ukraine win and be healed.