“Understanding China” in the light of the Ukrainian crisis

Beijing is considering an international response to a potential invasion of Taiwan, scholars say

China’s threat to Taiwan has not been overlooked during the war in Ukraine, given that Russia is similar in its way of preparing for its aggression. In this context, member A member of the National Committee on United States-China Relations spoke at a defense conference in Ottawa, giving her views on Beijing’s motives and the outlook for relations with Russia.

Cynthia WatsonUndergraduate and Academic Directors of the Washington, DC-based National War University said Beijing’s biggest take-away from the Russian attack could be a lot of international cooperation under US leadership to stop opposition. A rule-based international order that she said she believes — and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) must weigh these factors when considering acting against Taiwan.

Epoch Times Photo
Cynthia Watson, Dean of the National University of War in Washington, DC, is effectively attending the 2022 Ottawa Conference on Security and Defense on March 11, 2022. (Screenshot by Epoch Times)

“Taiwan is still the last issue of the Chinese Civil War, and many in the party believe that the party can never retreat, because it shows the party’s fragility,” Watson told the audience.Mainly military personnel during the title session “Understanding China” On March 11th Ottawa Conference Security and Defense 2022.

But she said [Chinese leader] Xi Jinping believes he must be fulfilled, which is relatively short for the reunification of Taiwan and the mainland. “

The fact that Taiwan has voices more aggressively demanding that the island nation refuse to unite altogether is “probably one of the most disturbing and potentially set. [Beijing’s] There will be an aggressive timeline, “she added.

Watson asked about the risks Beijing could face if the world opposed China’s manufacturing industry, as well as global sanctions against Russia, and the 1989 Tiananmen Square incident led to international sanctions. I pointed out that.

The business community returned to China only 18 months later and began offering technology and investment. “External investment, external technology and capital transfer to China.”

She believes Beijing “relies on the same kind of short-term memory if the world turns them on in Taiwan,” but “the party doesn’t believe it’s an option in Taiwan.” Repeated her view.

But she has a lot of questions about what timeline Xi has in mind for Taiwan, and given the “mysterious nature” of understanding CCP decision-making, it is “reading tea leaves.” “It’s a matter of things.

Russia and China

In the light of the Ukraine crisis, much debate has also been made on the relationship and codependence between Russia and China. Watson has not, in fact, seen a growing relationship between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the West.

“There is no doubt that China is aware that this relationship is at stake,” Watson said. China is so much “healthy” that it is unique and will continue to grow from the “not too distant future.” He added that there was mutual distrust. Is based on its young demographics and stronger economy.

Nevertheless, China’s food security topic was highly underestimated because it relied on Ukraine as its primary grain source, she said. She also said that part of the reason China is deepening its ties with Russia is the need for Russia’s natural resources.

Watson said China’s growth since the mid-1970s has been “some structural, whether demographic, environmental, or simply the model they have. I’m confident that I feel like I’m facing a challenge. ” It seems that the work itself is exhausted and leadership is potentially very disturbing. “

But she said, CCP continues to take all necessary steps domestically to maintain people’s employment and engage in social spending, and in addition to already large internal debt, “may not make sense. Do it the way. ” To us as outsiders in terms of economic stability. “

She reminded attendees that under Xi’s predecessor, China was economically open, joined the World Trade Organization, and saw its economy grow exponentially. But Mr Xi has put China more internally focused, and the CCP is now less willing to accept ideas, she said.

According to Watson, the first thing in CCP’s mind is to survive while maintaining power.

Rahul Vaidyanath


Rahul Vaidyanath is a journalist in The Epoch Times of Ottawa. His areas of expertise include economics, financial markets, China, defense and security. He has worked at the Bank of Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., and investment banks in Toronto, New York and Los Angeles.