As the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine approaches, US officials have informed Ukrainian officials that a critical moment is approaching to change the trajectory of the war.
sauce: Washington Post
Quoting from the Washington Post: “The war in recent months has been a slow grind in eastern Ukraine, with neither side able to gain the upper hand. I believe we will reach a critical turning point this spring, when we will launch a counterattack with the help of our forces to regain lost territory.”
detail: The critical nature of the coming months has reportedly already been articulated to Kiev by senior Biden officials, including Deputy National Security Advisor John Finer. Wendy Sherman, Deputy Secretary of State. Undersecretary of Defense Colin Carr all visited Ukraine last month.
Additionally, a week before these officials’ visits, CIA Director William Burns visited Ukraine. He briefed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Russia’s military plans for the coming months and stressed the urgency of the moment.
The Biden administration is now working with Congress to approve an additional $10 billion in direct budget aid to Kiev, and will announce another major military aid package next week, imposing new sanctions on the Kremlin around the same time. I plan to impose.
On the eve of the one-year anniversary of all-out war, the West is trying to signal Russian dictator Vladimir Putin that support for Ukraine is undiminished.
However, some experts warn that neither Russia nor Ukraine will achieve a decisive military advantage in the near future.
Biden and his aides have said they are determined to fully support Ukraine for as long as possible. But they warn that the policy direction could be tougher, which could come as early as this summer after Ukraine has exhausted its current parliamentary aid package.
At the same time, according to news outlets, tensions in the West underlie how Ukraine should focus its resources in the coming months.
Note that for many months Ukraine has spent considerable resources and troops defending Bakhmut in East Donbass. However, American military analysts believe that defending Bakhmut and launching a spring counterattack at the same time to regain Russia’s temporarily occupied territories is unrealistic.
The United States considers land liberation more important.
U.S. officials believe it will work to Russia’s advantage if Ukraine continues to fight where Russia is sending troops. Therefore, they urged Ukraine to prioritize the timing and implementation of its spring counterattack, especially as the United States and Europe train Ukrainian soldiers to use the most sophisticated weapons already on the battlefield.
The Biden administration also believes that Russia’s occupation of Bakhmut “will not lead to significant strategic changes on the battlefield.” [Russians – ed.] I’ve spent an incredible amount of blood and treasure.”
Moreover, US intelligence officials believe liberation of the highly fortified Crimea is beyond the capabilities of the Ukrainian military.
At the same time, Biden’s aides say they are sticking to the best course of action of giving Ukraine a chance to reclaim as much territory as possible in the coming months before meeting with Putin.
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