War Drums Beat (Over Europe)


Commentary

Finnish Economy Minister Mika Rintila said: said On September 8, the Finnish parliament said Finland was at war with Russia. This was a cryptic statement from the Finnish Minister. We have not been at war with Russia since the armistice (a peace treaty was signed on September 19, 1944) that ended the Continuation War, and we are certainly not at war with Russia now.

Minister Lintilah’s statement reflects the “jingoism” that has taken over most European leaders.they are actually waging war against the most countries nuclear weapons in the world! My question to European leaders is, have we learned nothing from the past?

I have detailed the economic costs of wars caused primarily by political decisions (sanctions) rather than actual wars.Europe is entering a dark age economically But things can get worse if you’re not careful.

for many years our Company I refrained from predicting one thing: war. But he made an exception in February when the Ukrainian conflict seemed to be spiraling out of control.

we warned Deprcon Subscriber, February 12, 2022, said that “the conflict between Ukraine and Russia could escalate in the coming weeks.” we continued:

“Our risk assessment has changed, mainly due to the ‘stalemate’ between Russia and its NATO allies. In our view, Russia is trying to prevent Ukraine from becoming a military bloc and possibly a member of the European Union. Putin could be ready to play “all the cards” to prevent any of those things from happening. “

We changed our stance because we knew the economic costs of war would be enormous. The February 12th warning also states:

“If the crisis escalates, it could have severe and perhaps partially unknown consequences for the financial system and the economy, as it seems likely now. You will be barred from SWIFT, the inter-payment system.

“In retaliation, Russia will most likely cut gas supplies to Europe, triggering a major energy crisis on the continent. will have the impact of

Unfortunately, our warning turned out to be correct.

Me and I, of course, continued to monitor the situation in Ukraine and on September 13th we discovered a startling scenario.

What if in Ukraine we misunderstand President Vladimir Putin’s goals, and in the West we blindly rely on Ukrainian propaganda about events on the ground? This will have devastating consequences for Europe going forward. I guess.That day, I published my controversial and much-discussed scenario. twitter.

On September 15th, I posted another (worst case) whole scenario on my website. NewsletterIt was based on three assumptions.

  1. Putin’s intention was not to invade Ukraine as a whole, but to create a land route to Crimea and strengthen the status of the annexed eastern states as part of Russia.
  2. Russian military actions reflect this, suggesting that the entire operation in the north was mostly “smoke and mirrors.”
  3. Russian military losses in Ukraine are exaggerated, and perhaps to a large extent.

If these assumptions are correct (I hope they aren’t), it means:

  1. Europe is about to fall into a “trap” both militarily and economically.
  2. We (Europeans) are trying to wreck the economy for no reason.

I won’t go into the details of my analysis here. my newsletterbut I would like to point out the dangers facing Europe and the world if the above scenario were to apply.

The original, officially stated goal of harsh sanctions against Russia was to force President Putin to negotiate peace or facilitate a coup in Russia. , seems to have turned into something that should be used to force a coup in the country. These are very dangerous goals/statements.

As noted earlier, economist John Maynard Keynes warned the League of Nations in 1924 against imposing sanctions on “enemies.”he explicitly said Sanctions “will always run the risk of being ineffective and not readily distinguishable from acts of war.”On the basis of recent speech According to Putin, the latter is now embodied in the thinking of the Russian regime, and the former looks increasingly likely.

As I detailed in my previous article, the European economy is sinking. Russia, of course, is also suffering, but the situation does not seem to be as dire as in Europe.

Russia, for example, is piling up record amounts from it oil salesLikely to have buyers for Russian oil even after European Union sanctions they. The Russian government is, of course, running a budget deficit. Less than More than many people (myself included) initially assumed.

Most importantly, Russia has an overwhelming advantage not only in energy, but also in the production of commodities and metals. For example, Russia is a major exporter of palladium, nickel and small diamonds. The country is also a major global exporter of platinum, gold, enriched uranium and coal. So while the Russian economy will suffer, it is unlikely to collapse, and at least ordinary Russians will have access to electricity and heating during the winter, although this cannot be guaranteed. for Europe.

Putin has also established a Stalin-like command and control over Russia. This means, quite bluntly, that a coup is unlikely.

Don’t get me wrong. We should not accept forced annexations or wars on our continent (or elsewhere, for that matter). That said, we Europeans need to understand and remember very vividly where the war escalation, the “war drum” ultimately leads.

I sincerely hope that we Europeans have the wisdom and courage to keep the world from burning down.

Views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The Epoch Times.

Tuomas Marinen

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Tuomas Malinen GnS Economics, a macroeconomic consultancy based in Helsinki, and Associate Professor of Economics. During his ten years he studied economic growth and economic crises. In his newsletter (MTMalinen.Substack.com), Malinen deals with forecasting and how to prepare for recessions and looming crises.