What Happens Next With Rising Violence Between Ukraine and Russia



Ukrainian soldiers beside a kind of mannequin on April 8, 2021 while standing in his post at the forefront with a Russian-backed separatist near the town of Zorote in the Lugansk region. Walk in the trench. The eastern front of Ukraine on April 8, 2021, after a surge in clashes with separatists and a surge in tensions with Moscow. The battle between Ukrainian troops and separatists has intensified in recent weeks, raising the risk of a large-scale expansion of long-term conflict over the Donbas region, which speaks primarily Russian. (Photo by STR / AFP) (Photo by STR / AFP by Getty Images) Credit-AFP by Getty Images

In the past few weeks after the calm of combat since July last year, violence has occurred along the stop line separating the isolated areas of eastern Ukraine from the rest of Ukraine … Moscow rallying troops along the Ukrainian border I started to do it. Is it a prelude to war? It’s unlikely.

This is what happens next in the long standoffs between Kiev and Moscow.

Important reason:

Last summer, Russia and Ukraine decided to better implement an unstable ceasefire since 2014 against battles that have hit some separatist outposts in eastern Ukraine, especially in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. I agreed. Russia has supported the separatist movements in Donets’k and Luhansk.Where More than 14,000 people have died in previous battles.. why? Ukraine is a strategically important country and Moscow believes it needs to maintain its influence. In 2014, Ukraine turned to the EU and NATO. These were seen by Russian President Vladimir Putin as an existential threat to Moscow. Therefore, the occupation of Crimea, and the independence movement of Donetsk and Luhansk. Ukraine is not yet a member of either the EU or NATO, so Russian barbarians have worked in that regard, but at a cost to their success.Russia Troublesome energy, defense, economic sanctions Since then, from the West.

So what is Russia really aiming for? The intention for Moscow is to have the two separatist regions hold local elections and govern themselves, but not completely withdraw from Ukraine. Moscow wants to leave its territory semi-independent so that Russia can use it to influence political development within Ukraine, including the possibility of blocking the move to join NATO. I will. Russia’s ultimate goal is to enshrine this quasi-independent position in the Ukrainian Constitution.

Not surprisingly, this is a former comedian Current President Volodymyr Zelensky.. In 2019, Zelensky defeated the country’s president using an aggressive dissident platform, but also pledged a central campaign to end the war in eastern Ukraine.In the early days of his administration he Russia insisted on withdrawing troops from within the Ukrainian border Before proceeding with a long-term political solution. It is a wise politics, and although Ukraine has little willingness to mitigate Russia’s aggression, Zelensky failed to fulfill his promise to end the violence.

What happens next:

was there Casualties of 5 Ukrainian soldiers last week According to the White House, a late signal Russian move that the July 2020 ceasefire agreement will be tested in the coming weeks.

What has changed? In recent months things have been quiet and Zelensky has been pardoned in the short term due to low casualties … but there have been long-term problems as no progress has been made towards ending the conflict. With President Joe Biden’s move to the White House, Zelensky began making overtures for the Biden administration to be directly involved in the stalemate, but given all the other crises that the Biden administration inherited, it was. It was a long way. Still, Putin wants more US involvement. Putin discourages the power show from over-interfering with the United States, hoping that pressure will move Ukraine’s leadership towards negotiations for a political solution to the conflict, even if Russia does not withdraw its troops. It is highly likely that he decided to let him do it. Russia claimed that it was the Ukrainians who provoked them in aggressive action and warned against interfering with NATO. And Zelensky called on NATO this week for an action plan that would allow Ukraine to join NATO, a move that would make Putin even worse for the foreseeable future. NATO avoids conflict..

NATO officials have calculated that Russia is unlikely to escalate the problem too dramatically against Ukraine. Moscow may mobilize another costly conflict (yet) without a clear exit strategy, especially Western nations already dissatisfied with Russia’s actions in many other regions (election interference) , Cyber ​​attackArrested Alexei NavalnyAt least in the form of sharper sanctions on the Ukrainian side (to name just a few). That military intervention on behalf of Donetsk and Luhansk has no political appeal to the Russian people, as did its past expansion into Georgia and Crimea, and that risk and reward calculations are too imbalanced for Putin. Please take it into consideration. Ukraine, on the other hand, does not want part of a long-term war with a much larger neighbor if it can be avoided. Kiev also knows that aggressive offensive action against Russia risks losing current Western support.

With that all in mind, more violence will certainly be seen in the limited areas along the stop line, but not far beyond that. And as long as violence is contained, it is unlikely that it will lead to more sanctions against Russia (although it certainly does not favor a wider relationship with the western part of Moscow). Of course, you never know what you can get with Putin.Former US President Donald Trump liked to talk about big games about Keep guessing the enemy, Putin has a proven track record to prove it.Plenty of Kremlin Creating varying degrees of threatSo far, I haven’t heard much about the situation from Putin himself ( “Dangerous provocative behavior”)When he decides to weigh in and begins to make certain demands, it’s time to start worrying.

One big misconception about it:

Putin, who is the most aggressive, is aiming to occupy Donetsk and Luhansk as well as Crimea. In reality, occupying every territory, not to mention these fiercely contested areas, requires serious resources, from personnel to military equipment to direct financing. Everything is needed before additional sanctions are considered. Oh, don’t forget the recent economy hits from the pandemic.

Putin is a lot (“killer, “According to Biden) … But he’s not crazy.

One thing to read about it:

Willis Sparks on GZERO Media Lay out the case For reasons why NATO should and should not welcome Ukraine to its folding.

One thing to say about it with a zoom call:

Neither side is currently happy with the situation in Donetsk and Luhansk, as both Ukraine and Russia want to see progress towards their favorable results. However, the longer the conflict, the more the Donetsk and Luhansk outposts will be treated as de facto separate entities that need to be negotiated in an official diplomatic position. It puts Putin in the strength position. And Zelensky knows that.