Why electric cars spread faster than expected


A Volkswagen ID.3 electric vehicle stands on an elevator platform in one of the twin towers used as a warehouse for the Autostadt promotion facility next to the Volkswagen factory.

Strong sales of electric vehicles

Perhaps you haven’t driven yet, let alone take the purchase seriously, so this prediction may sound a bit bold, but please forgive me.

We are in the midst of the biggest revolution in the automotive industry since Henry Ford’s first production line resumed operations in 1913.

And that can happen much faster than you can imagine.

Many industry insiders believe that electric vehicle (EV) sales have already passed a turning point that is rapidly overwhelming gasoline and diesel vehicles.

That’s certainly what the world’s leading automakers are thinking.

Jaguar plans to sell only electric cars from 2025 and Volvo from 2030, and last week the British sports car company Lotus announced that it would sell only electric cars from 2028.

Jaguar I-Pace (I-PACE) Battery-powered Electric Crossover SUV on display at the Brussels Expo in Brussels on January 9, 2020

Jaguar plans to sell only electric vehicles from 2025

It’s not just premium brands.

General Motors will produce only electric vehicles by 2035, Ford will make all vehicles sold in Europe electric vehicles by 2030, and Volkswagen will make 70% of its sales electric vehicles by 2030. Said.

This is neither fashion nor greenwashing.

Yes, the fact that many governments around the world have set goals to ban the sale of gasoline and diesel vehicles is giving momentum to the process.

But what makes the end of the internal combustion engine inevitable is technological innovation. And technological innovation tends to occur very quickly.

This revolution will be electric

Look at the internet.

In my opinion, the EV market is where the Internet existed in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

At that time, there was a lot of talk about this new thing where computers communicate with each other.

Jeff Bezos founded Amazon, and Google began taking over AltaVista, Ask Jives, Yahoo and more. Some of the companies involved had a stunning reputation.

For those who haven’t logged on yet, everything seemed exciting, interesting, but irrelevant. How useful is computer communication? After all, we have a phone!

But the Internet, like all successful new technologies, has not followed a straight path to world domination. It hasn’t evolved over time, and we have always given us time to plan ahead.

Its growth was explosive and devastating, crushing existing businesses and changing almost all of our ways. And it followed a well-known pattern known to technicians as the S-curve.

Ride the internet S-curve

It’s actually an elongated S.

The idea is that innovation begins slowly and only the most geeky geeks are interested. Here, the EV is at the bottom of the shallow slope of S.

On the Internet, the graph starts at 22:30 on October 29, 1969. At that time, a computer at the University of California, Los Angeles communicated with a computer at Stanford University hundreds of miles away.

Researchers entered L, O, and G in that order. The system crashed before I typed the word “login”.

As I said, only geeks.

S-shaped curve

S-shaped curve

Ten years later, there were still only a few hundred computers on the network, but the pace of change was accelerating.

In the 1990s, more tech savvy people began to buy personal computers.

As the market grew, prices fell rapidly and performance improved dramatically. This has led to more and more people logging on to the Internet.

S is starting to pick up here and growth is exponential. By 1995, about 16 million people were online. By 2001, there were 513 million people.

Currently, there are over 3 billion people. What happens next is that our S begins to tilt horizontally.

Growth is slowing now as almost everyone who wants to be online is online.

Jeremy Clarkson’s contempt

We saw the same pattern of slow start, exponential growth, and slowdown to mature markets including smartphones, photography and even antibiotics.

At the turn of the last century, internal combustion engines followed the same trajectory.

So did steam engines and printing presses. And electric cars will do the same.

In fact, they have a more venerable lineage than the Internet.

The first rough electric car was developed by Scottish inventor Robert Anderson in the 1830s.

However, this technology has only been available at competitive prices in the last few years.

Former Top Gear moderator and used car dealer Quentin Willson should know. He has been driving an electric car for over 10 years.

General Motors'Environmentally Friendly Electric Vehicle, EV1, January 1998

The 1998 EV1 was GM’s first electric vehicle attempt and failed.

He tried out General Motors’ now infamous EV1 20 years ago. It cost $ 1 billion to develop, but GM considered it unexploded. GM crushed only a handful of the 1,000 or so cars it produced.

The EV1’s range was horrifying, about 50 miles for a regular driver, but Wilson won. “I remember thinking this was the future,” he told me.

He says he will never forget the contempt radiated by fellow Top Gear presenter Jeremy Clarkson when he showed his first electric car, the Citroen C-Zero, ten years later.

“It was completely,’You did the most indescribable thing and disgraced us all. Go away!'” He says. He admits that he couldn’t turn on the heater in the car because of the reduced range.

More business technology

How has the situation changed? Wilson says the latest electric car, the Tesla Model 3, has no range concerns.

He states that he travels about 300 miles on a single charge and accelerates from 0 to 60 in 3.1 seconds.

“It’s super comfortable, airy and bright. It’s just a joy, and now I want to tell you clearly that I’ll never come back.”

Significant improvements have been made to the motors that drive electric vehicles, the computers that control them, the charging system, and the design of the vehicle.

However, most of the major performance changes Wilson has experienced are possible due to improvements in the battery, which is the heart of the vehicle’s non-beating.

Tesla Model 3

The Tesla Model 3 is the best-selling electric vehicle in the world.

The most noticeable change is price.

Only 10 years ago, it cost $ 1,000 per kilowatt-hour of battery power, says Madeline Tyson of RMI, a clean energy research group based in the United States. Currently, $ 100 (£ 71) of Nudge is set.

It is considered a point that can be purchased cheaper than an equivalent internal combustion engine vehicle.

However, according to Tyson, EVs require far less cost when considering fuel and service costs. Many EVs are already cheaper than gasoline and diesel alternatives.

At the same time, the energy density-how much power can be packed into each battery-is continuing to rise.

They also last a long time.

Last year, the world’s first battery capable of traveling 1 million miles Chinese battery revealed Manufacturer, CATL.

Companies that run large cars like Uber and Lyft are leading the switch. This is because cars with longer mileage save money.

However, according to Tyson, retail customers will soon follow suit as prices continue to fall.

How fast does it happen?

The answer is very fast.

Like the Internet in the 90’s, the electric vehicle market is already growing exponentially.

Global sales of electric vehicles surged in 2020, up 43% to a total of 3.2 million units, despite the pandemic of the new coronavirus dropping overall vehicle sales by a fifth.

Global sales of electric vehicles

Global sales of electric vehicles

That’s only 5% of total car sales, but it’s already in the steep part of S.

By 2025, 20% of all new vehicles sold worldwide will be electric vehicles, according to the latest forecast by investment bank UBS.

By 2030, it will jump to 40%, and by 2040, almost every new car sold worldwide will be an electric vehicle, UBS said.

The reason is due to another curve that manufacturers call the “learning curve”.

The more you make something, the better you can make it and the cheaper it is. That’s why PCs, kitchen appliances, and petrol and diesel cars have become very affordable.

New Wangda Electric Vehicle Battery Co., Ltd., which manufactures lithium batteries for electric vehicles, located in Nanjing City, Jiangsu Province, eastern China.

Increasingly large factories are reducing the price of batteries for electric vehicles

The same is why we have reduced the price of batteries, or electric vehicles.

Ramez Naam, co-chair of energy and the environment at Singularity University in California, says we are at a turning point.

He believes the game will succeed as soon as electric cars become cost-competitive with fossil fuel cars.

That’s certainly what Tesla’s self-proclaimed techno king, Elon Musk, believes.

Last month, he predicted to investors that the Model 3 would be the best-selling premium sedan in the world, and the newer, cheaper Model Y would be the best-selling car of all kinds.

“There has been a real change in customer perceptions of electric vehicles. Our demand is the highest we’ve ever seen,” Musk said at a meeting.

There’s something to do before electric cars drive their petrol and diesel rivals off the street.

Most importantly, anyone can easily and cheaply charge their car, whether or not they have a driveway at home.

It takes effort and investment, but it will happen just as a century ago a vast network of gas stations was able to rapidly fuel cars.

If you’re still skeptical, I suggest you try an electric car yourself.

Today, most major car manufacturers offer a variety of models. Please try a test drive. See if you, like Quentin Willson, want to join the future of the automotive industry.

Posted on