Will China forcibly seize Taiwan by 2027?Experts comment on the oncoming threat


News analysis

In recent years, Beijing has threatened to forcibly seize Taiwan as needed. Will a war break out in the Taiwan Strait soon? Experts and politicians from both countries share their views on this issue.

China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) could occupy Taiwan in a week and is not afraid to fight US troops in the Taiwan Strait. Canrong Jin, a prominent Chinese professor at the Faculty of International Studies at Renmin University of China and a foreign policy adviser in Beijing, told Nikkei on January 31st.

“Leadership is very likely to move towards unification of armed forces by 2027, the 100th anniversary of the PLA’s founding,” Jin argued.

Since 1949, Taiwan and mainland China have been run by two different governments. For decades, Taiwan has been a de facto independent country, and despite its own army, democratically elected government, and constitution, the Chinese government has claimed the island to be unique. ..

Voice from Taiwan

Former Hongbin, a Chinese novelist and exiled philosopher, believes Beijing will begin a war to unify Taiwan in 2024.He Said The Epoch Times on February 3rd by the Chinese Government It will put financial and political pressure on Taiwan to induce it.

Taiwanese scholars and politicians do not believe that China can defeat Taiwan in the war, especially if its allies and the United States support Taiwan’s defense.

“It is not easy [to unify Taiwan by force].. There are many factors that China should consider, “said Lee Cheng-hsiu, Senior Assistant Research Fellow, National Policy Foundation, Taiwan. Said The Epoch Times on February 1st. “When Beijing begins the war, the international community will react.”

“The situation is dynamic. The attacker’s abilities are changing. It’s the same as the defender. Taiwan is being strengthened,” he said. Sue Tsuyun, a senior analyst at the Taiwan-based Defense Security Institute, told the publication on February 1.

“We are determined to protect our hometown,” Taiwan Foreign Minister Joseph Wu told German media ZDF on February 1. Wu emphasized that Taiwan’s defense capabilities continue to improve with support from the United States, which provides weapons and military training, and advanced information sharing between the two countries.

Epoch Times Photo
The PLA Air Force WZ-7 High Altitude Reconnaissance Drone will be seen the day before the 13th China International Aviation & Aerospace Expo held in Zhuhai, Guangdong Province, southern China on September 27, 2021. (NoelCelis / AFP via Getty Images)

Taiwanese experts are under pressure under the oppressive rules of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to convey messages in line with Beijing’s policies, including the unification of Taiwan’s armed forces, by Chinese scholars and experts. I believe.

“The Chinese Communist Party administration is planning to hold the 20th Rubber Stamp Parliamentary Meeting next fall … [Jin] We must unite with the leaders of the Chinese Communist Party and promote Beijing’s story of unifying Taiwan by force. “

Mr. Su believes that the Taiwan Strait issue gives people the opportunity to choose between Taiwan’s democracy and the totalitarianism of the Chinese administration, rather than simply unifying the two.

“According to a recent poll, 70 percent of Taiwanese choose democracy,” he said. “The opinions of pro-China reflect their arrogance and ignorance of the facts, which poses real risks and dangers to the region.”

Sue emphasized that allies and other nations that support democracy and freedom will support Taiwan. “Taiwan has military alliances with many countries. When the Chinese government begins a war, these countries will not wait lazy.”

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On January 7, 2022, during training in the northern city of Keelung, Taiwanese soldiers are standing next to the domestic Corvette-class vessel, the Tuo Chiang-class corvette (R). (Sam Yeh / AFP via Getty Images)

Jin suggested that Taipei and Beijing should meet and discuss cooperation. But Sue warned that the CCP should not be trusted.

“As early as the 1920s, the CCP used a bargaining strategy. [then China’s ruling party] KMT [Kuomintang]But behind the scenes, it was a fight against the Kuomintang and cheating. Taiwan will no longer be fooled by CCP tricks, “Sue said.

Invasion of Taiwan is dangerous

The yuan disagrees with Jin about the PLA’s ability to suppress Taiwanese troops, but Chinese leader Xi Jinping is still trying to unify Taiwan with the mainland in the near future, even if China could be defeated in the war. I believe in exercising power.

“It’s hard for the PLA to occupy the city, not to mention the big islands. In 1989, hundreds of thousands of PLA soldiers spent almost a month curbing student protests and controlling Beijing. “, Mentioning the student-led opposition to democratization at Tiananmen Square, Yuan said.

“Based on my knowledge and understanding, Taiwan can organize and arm 3 million civilians in a short period of time. Once PLA soldiers land there, they will be on the island with the Taiwanese army. Will protect. “

“The diplomatic problems of the Chinese administration are expanding. At the same time, China’s economy is at stake and its politics is not as stable as it looks. The administration will soon face a complete financial and political collapse. Before this collapse arrives, Xi will start a war in the Taiwan Strait and try to shift the focus of the Chinese people from domestic affairs, which he believes will save the CCP.

The yuan warned that when Xi began the war, Chinese who opposed the totalitarian rule of the CCP would stand up and fight for freedom, which would lead to the collapse of the government.

Epoch Times Photo
Map showing China, Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait. (Image source: Central Intelligence Agency)

Chung Yue-fu, a sociology professor who retired from China’s prestigious Peking University, urged Beijing to abolish plans to unify Taiwan with force.

and article Chung was posted on an overseas Chinese news platform on January 22, explaining that many Chinese people do not want war, but their voices are inaudible due to Beijing censorship.

“The threat of using power [to unify Taiwan] It causes war and the consequences are catastrophic. … When the war begins, China, Taiwan and the United States have no room for concessions. … When nuclear-weapon states fight each other, no force can stop them from using these weapons, ”Chung wrote.

Luo Ya contributed to this report.

Nicole Hao

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Nicole Hao is a Washington-based reporter focused on topics related to China. Prior to joining the Epoch Media Group in July 2009, he was the Global Product Manager for the railway business in Paris, France.